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Lok Sabha election result 2024: Akhilesh appears to be turning the tables, can BJP recover from the blow? | Opinion Analysis News

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Results: INDIA leads with 43 seats and is putting up a tough fight against the BJP in UP. The saffron party’s performance here could make the difference between it getting its own majority or not

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav. (Image: TV9 Bharatvarsh)

Lok Sabha Election Result 2024: Opposition INDIA is delivering the most unexpected and perhaps biggest shock of these elections to the ruling BJP in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, which elects 80 Lok Sabha members. The Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress combine is leading in more seats than the BJP-led NDA in Lord Rama’s native state. According to the Election Commission of India, the Samajwadi Party has won 36 seats, while the Congress is ahead by seven seats. Compared to INDIA’s lead of 43 seats, the BJP leads with 35 seats. If this lead is converted into seats, UP will prove to be the biggest hurdle in the BJP’s quest for a majority, forget 370.

Political victory or loss cannot be attributed to a single factor. There could be several reasons, especially in a state like UP with diverse demographic and geographical diversity.

While it is not easy to understand the aspirations and inclinations of 24 crore people, the Samajwadi Party’s clever ticket distribution seems to have changed the entire dynamics of the contest in UP. In simple terms, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav was able to make the UP elections caste-centric instead of religion-centric as the BJP wanted.

Caste vs religion

Caste is the biggest factor in UP politics and the consolidation of a large section of OBCs behind the BJP in the last elections left the SP in dire straits. Akhilesh Yadav had to find ways to keep OBCs out of the saffron party. He had to expand beyond MY (Muslims-Yadavs). Not only did Akhilesh Yadav come up with a new slogan – PDA (Pichde, Dalit, Alpasankhyak), but he also delivered the speech by giving the majority of the tickets to the OBCs, while keeping an eye on Muslims and Yadav candidates.

The SP gave tickets to 27 non-Yadav OBCs and majority of these included the lower and extremely backward classes. The upper castes, considered the vote bank of the BJP, were given 11 tickets while nominating 15 Dalits for the SC’s reserved seats. Meanwhile, the party gave only four tickets to the Muslims and five Yadavs. Overall, it was a better ticket distribution than the BJP, which gave tickets to 34 upper caste candidates in a majority OBC state, and the BSP, which gave tickets to 34 Muslims.

SP’s smart ticket distribution

Akhilesh Yadav took plenty of time to decide on the candidates. He was accused of unnecessary delay. He changed his cousin Dharmendra Yadav’s ticket almost a month after he declared it. In the case of Meerut and Badaun, SP changed tickets three times. Akhilesh was not only concerned about the caste composition of the constituency in question, but in addition to the BJP candidate, he also had to consider the BSP candidates, the majority of whom were declared would only harm the SP’s chances. When the BSP fielded a Muslim candidate in Moradabad, Akhilesh Yadav changed his sitting MP ST Hasan and fielded a Rajput-Ruch Veera. It was aimed at halting the polarization of elections along religious lines in the neighboring mutism-dominated constituencies of Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha etc. It seems to have paid well. Similarly, the caste equations of the SP candidates in eastern UP constituencies like Balia, Ghosi, Kausmabhi etc. are likely to yield gains for the party.

Congress

The fact that the Congress is on its way to a victory with 6-7 seats is big news for the party that was almost on the brink of extinction in UP. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatras had set high expectations for the party, not just in UP but across the country. The coming together of SP and Congress has complimented each other. While the Muslim votes remained undivided, UP’s Dalits still have some soft corners for the Congress. So even though they didn’t want to vote for the SP, Congress made it possible.

Meanwhile, the rejection of the BJP to this extent in UP can also be attributed to rising unemployment, inflation, farmers’ misery etc.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author. The opinions and facts expressed in this article do not represent the position of News9.)

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